Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.007553 0.008513 0.009550 0.010754 0.012114 0.013604 0.015361
2026-01-11 0.006123 0.007465 0.009035 0.011009 0.013428 0.016300 0.019975
2026-01-18 0.005176 0.006662 0.008496 0.010931 0.014089 0.018053 0.023426
2026-01-25 0.004536 0.006099 0.008118 0.010922 0.014728 0.019732 0.026841
2026-02-01 0.003986 0.005566 0.007686 0.010747 0.015071 0.020988 0.029744
2026-02-08 0.003621 0.005232 0.007467 0.010809 0.015703 0.022644 0.033303
2026-02-15 0.003275 0.004879 0.007176 0.010721 0.016083 0.023941 0.036426
2026-02-22 0.003068 0.004704 0.007115 0.010946 0.016923 0.025956 0.040770
2026-03-01 0.002746 0.004322 0.006706 0.010600 0.016846 0.026557 0.042954
2026-03-08 0.002501 0.004034 0.006412 0.010397 0.016962 0.027444 0.045641
2026-03-15 0.002270 0.003747 0.006093 0.010121 0.016923 0.028063 0.047917
2026-03-22 0.002188 0.003695 0.006145 0.010452 0.017908 0.030425 0.053320
2026-03-29 0.002080 0.003593 0.006110 0.010639 0.018675 0.032504 0.058463
2026-04-05 0.001991 0.003515 0.006109 0.010885 0.019566 0.034872 0.064340
2026-04-12 0.001856 0.003346 0.005936 0.010808 0.019867 0.036210 0.068439
2026-04-19 0.001745 0.003210 0.005808 0.010799 0.020285 0.037783 0.073105
2026-04-26 0.001621 0.003038 0.005601 0.010626 0.020378 0.038753 0.076683
2026-05-03 0.001540 0.002941 0.005523 0.010688 0.020919 0.040607 0.082154
2026-05-10 0.001446 0.002811 0.005375 0.010600 0.021158 0.041889 0.086573
2026-05-17 0.001398 0.002767 0.005386 0.010823 0.022031 0.044487 0.093927
2026-05-24 0.001287 0.002591 0.005125 0.010481 0.021724 0.044674 0.096208
2026-05-31 0.001202 0.002458 0.004941 0.010281 0.021692 0.045419 0.099741
2026-06-07 0.001115 0.002317 0.004731 0.010007 0.021483 0.045771 0.102431